Will You Get a 189 Invite? The New Model Explained for Offshore Applicants

Understanding Tiers, Occupation Ceilings & Your Chances in the New Selection Logic

In recent weeks, a new model explaining how Subclass 189 Skilled Independent visa invitations may be allocated has been circulating widely among migration communities. While this model is not an official announcement, it aligns closely with how the Australian Government is currently prioritising skilled migration.

At Aspire Square, we know many of our offshore clients depend on clear, practical guidance to plan their migration pathway. This article breaks down the model in a simple and structured way, helping you understand what may influence your chances of receiving a 189 invitation.

Why This Matters for Offshore Applicants?

As offshore invitations have only recently restarted, many clients want clarity on:

• Which occupations will receive more or fewer invitations
• How priority may shift across different industries
• Whether ICT, accounting, engineering, or trade occupations will still see movement
• How employer-sponsored visas affect 189 availability

This model helps offshore applicants estimate possible outcomes and adjust their strategy early – while still keeping all other pathways, such as 190 and 491 visas, open.

How the Proposed 189 Allocation Model Works?

According to the widely discussed logic, the Department first allocates places to other skilled programs:

1. Employer-Sponsored visas
2. State-Nominated visas (Subclass 190)
3. Regional visas (Subclass 491 / 494)

Only the remaining quota is available for Subclass 189 invitations, which are mostly issued in large rounds.

How Occupation Invitations Are Estimated?

Two major factors determine invitation numbers:

1. Size of the Australian workforce in that occupation
2. A tier-based percentage multiplier (0.5% to 4%)

The formula being circulated is:

189 Invitations = Workforce Size × Tier % − Last Year’s Employer-Sponsored Grants

Additionally:

• If the remaining number is between 1 and 499, the model suggests a minimum of 500 invitations.
• If employer-sponsored grants already exceed the ceiling, zero 189 invitations may be issued for that occupation.

This model helps offshore applicants anticipate competition in their field.

Understanding the Four Tiers

Each occupation falls into a “tier” with a different multiplier that affects invitation numbers.

Tier 1 – Critical Medical & Health Occupations (4% Multiplier)

Highest-priority professions
Includes GPs, medical specialists, registered nurses, midwives, radiographers, physiotherapists, occupational therapists, audiologists and similar roles.

Offshore impact:
Extremely strong invitation prospects; many healthcare occupations are already receiving priority processing and high demand across Australia.

Tier 2 – Government Priority Occupations (2% Multiplier)

Focuses on public service and essential social infrastructure roles:

• Childcare Centre Managers
• Early Childhood Teachers
• Secondary Teachers
• Special Education Teachers
• Psychologists
• Social Workers

Offshore impact:
Good to strong invitation chances. Education and community-sector roles remain critical nationwide.

Tier 3 – Engineering, Science, Trades & Other Technical Occupations (1% Multiplier)

This is the largest and most diverse group, covering:

• Engineers (civil, electrical, mechanical, mining, petroleum, environmental)
• Architects & Surveyors
• Scientists
• University lecturers
• Automotive trades
• Construction trades
• Metal & electrical trades
• Managers, consultants, legal professionals
• Creative and sports occupations

Offshore impact:
Moderate chances, highly dependent on occupation demand and employer-sponsored visa activity.
Trade occupations may see better movement due to national shortages.

Tier 4 – Oversupplied & Highly Competitive Occupations (0.5% Multiplier)

Includes:

• Accountants
• Auditors
• ICT professionals (programmers, software engineers, ICT analysts, security specialists, network engineers)
• Telecommunications technicians
• Chefs

Offshore impact:
Lowest estimated invitation prospects under the model. ICT and accounting remain heavily oversupplied and often rely on state sponsorship rather than 189.

Example of How the Calculation Works

(Provided in the circulated model)

Occupation: Software Engineer

• Workforce size: 400,000
• Tier: 4 → 0.5%
• Ceiling = 400,000 × 0.5% = 2,000
• Last year’s employer-sponsored visas = 1,600
• Remaining = 400

Since 400 < 500 → minimum 500 invitations may be issued.

If employer-sponsored numbers exceed 2,000 → no 189 invitations.

What This Means for Offshore Clients

Healthcare & medical applicants

Excellent prospects
Offshore invitations are highly likely due to chronic skill shortages.

Teachers, psychologists, social workers

Strong to moderate chances
Consistently prioritised under national policies.

Engineers, trade workers & scientists

Moderate chances
Demand exists but varies by state and employer-sponsorship activity.

ICT & accounting applicants

Low direct 189 prospects
Should strongly consider alternative strategies such as:

• State sponsorship via 190/491
• Employer nomination pathways
• Skill upgrades or regional opportunities

Aspire Square Recommendation for Offshore Applicants

Because the 189 program is highly competitive and based on changing national priorities, offshore applicants should:

1. Keep multiple visa pathways open (189 + 190 + 491)

Do not rely solely on Subclass 189.

2. Strengthen your EOI immediately

Higher points → higher invitation ranking.

3. Take advantage of state nomination programs

Many states continue to invite offshore candidates, especially in teaching, health, trades and engineering.

Final Thoughts

The tier-based 189 invitation model helps offshore applicants understand current trends and potential outcomes in the skilled migration pipeline.

At Aspire Square, our goal is to ensure you:

• Choose the strongest visa pathway
• Understand your realistic invitation chances
• Stay updated with policy shifts
• Maximise your opportunity for Australian PR

If you want a personalised assessment of how your occupation fits into this model, our migration experts are ready to guide you.